Jack Milner: As a rule conditions races tend to help punters as they have the advantage of knowing who are the best handicapped horses and while there is no guarantee everything will work out as planned, one generally gets close.
However, Race 5 at Fairview today, a Pinnacle Stakes over 1400m on the Polytrack, provides little advantage to punters as these horses are very close together. In fact, it could almost be a handicap.
Fire In The Belly has a 0.5kg advantage over his opposition but after that there is very little advantage to any of the others. Sometimes one has to rely on the form and perhaps on that basis, Dawnbreaker gets a very conservative nod of the head.
Gavin Smith’s charge has done well since relocating to Port Elizabeth, especially on the Polytrack. He has a record three wins and four places in seven starts on the surface but jockey Keagan de Melo will have to deal with No 11 draw.
What he does have is a good record against Breakfast Club who has beaten many of these horses and should be a contender in this line-up. He is trained by Alan Greeff and will be ridden by Greg Cheyne and they once again are coming off a champion season so are a combination who should never be ignored in an open race.
Justin Snaith is the national Champion Trainer and he saddles Afrikaburn who is rarely far off the winner. Robert Khathi has placed on him so he knows the horse.
Although it might not be the stable’s first choice, Greeff-trained Fire In The Belly should not be left out, especially from No 1 draw.