Jack Milner: If the expression that the smaller the field, the bigger the upset is true then punters could be in for a torrid time at Durbanville on Tuesday. There are only eight races but the Pick 6 is made up of four fields of seven horses, one of nine runners and one of 10.
In most cases the form is very close and there are five runners with chances. However, there is one very interesting runner and he come up in Race 4.
Eric Sands appears to have picked up some decent stock this year and Bellingham Bay could be among them.
This son of Sail From Seattle made his debut at Durbanville on 4 August and was priced up at 50-1. That price certainly belied his ability because he fought off all his opposition to beat Gimmetherain by a length.
What makes that run a cut above the rest is that two winners from just three races have come from that form line. The runner-up has yet to race but third-placed Rip It Up, who was beaten 2.25 lengths, did win his next start, beating Shadowing by 0.50 lengths.
Apprentice Liam Tarentaal took 2.5kg off his back when he rode the three-year-old colt last time and will do the same tomorrow when he makes his handicap appearance in Race 4, a MR 78 Handicap over 1000m.
That means he will carry just 53kg so it could be worth taking a chance and making Bellingham Bay a banker in all bets.
He has been priced up as the 5-2 favourite which could be excellent value if he is as good as the one run indicates.
Race 6, a MR 82 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1800m, could be another opportunity on which to cut back when calculating the cost of your Pick 6. Looking at the class of the field and form of the runners it really does look a boat race between Justin Snaith-trained Talitha Borealis and Rubyana, trained by Adam Marcus.
Only a length separated the pair last time over 2000m at Kenilworth and now the runner-up, Talitha Borealis, is 1kg better off. That puts the race almost as a dead heat but Talitha Borealis is drawn No 3 while her chief opponent jumps from barrier No 7 on a course where the draw is vital.
In addition, Snaith’s charge has a better record at Durbanville having run twice for a first and a second while Rubyana has also raced twice at the course for a third place. Both have good jockeys with Richard Fourie on Talitha Borealis and Greg Cheyne aboard Rubyana.
Those who are hoping to upset the duo should consider Cavalleria who will carry just 49kg courtesy of Louis Burke’s apprentice claim.