HK race by Race analysis

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HAPPY VALLEY SELECTIONS (Wednesday October 10, 2018):

RACE 1: #3 Happy Sebring, #6 General Dino, #2 Ten Flames, #1 King Of Mongolia

RACE 2:, #3 Rookie Star, #2 Otouto, #7 The Show 3 12 Regency Honey

RACE 3: #8 Ultimate Dream, #5 Starlit Knight, #6 Speedy Wally, #7 District Express

RACE 4: #2 Mr Right, #5 Victory Power, #3 Nice Fandango, #9 Lunar Zephyr

RACE 5: #12 Applause, #8 Blitzing, #7 Bingo, #10 Open House

RACE 6: #4 Good Omen, #6 Perfect Glory, #5 Jade Theatre, #2 Fairy Twins

RACE 7: #3 Gunnison, #8 Cheerfuljet, #9 Mr Lumieres, #2 Baltic Whisper

RACE 8: #4 Sleep Education, #9 Right Honourable, #1 Don’t Miss, #7 Good Beauty

RACE 1: BEGONIA HANDICAP

#3 Happy Sebring really impressed at his second start, showing a deft turn of foot to win comfortably over 1400m. He ran a good race over the same course and distance after that before a disappointing effortat a mile. He has his first start for Tony Cruz and his maiden outing at Happy Valley and all signs suggest that he will be hard to beat in
this spot. #6 General Dino has been mixing his form but his first-uprun – a 13th over the Sha Tin mile, beaten almost 13 lengths – is simply not him. Back to Happy Valley and up to 1800m, he can improve dramatically. #2 Ten Flames is a two-time winner second-up and should run a far better race here. #1 King Of Mongolia has won once from only
two starts in Class 4. He looks primed for this.

RACE 2: CASSIA HANDICAP

#3 Rookie Star and #2 Otouto should both be suited back to Happy Valley and are next best, while The Show can flash home over this shorter trip.

RACE 3: DIANTHUS HANDICAP

#8 Ultimate Dream looked to have been progressing the right way last season, but his final effort was poor and his first-up run left a bit to be desired. He gets into a better draw now though and that could allow him to save a lot of ground and perhaps break through in this spot. #5 Starlit Knight was given a quiet ride from a wide gate last
time out and finished off strongly. He has another awkward gate but the booking of Zac Purton is a flashing light and he should be in the finish. #6 Speedy Wally is hard to catch and still looks quite high in the ratings for him, but he can get into the placings. #7 District Express should appreciate the step up to a mile.

RACE 4: MAGNOLIA HANDICAP

#2 Mr Right’s record in Class 4 speaks for itself and he ran another bold race over this course and distance in finishing second first-up. The winner that night, Most Beautiful, has already gone on to win in Class 3 and, with even luck, that is where Mr Right should be after this race. #5 Victory Power has talent but a number of little things
have been going wrong in his races. He’s close to putting it all together and perhaps that comes here – a case of third time lucky with Zac Purton aboard from the inside gate. #3 Nice Fandango is honest and should be able to stick around for a long time in this company. #9 Lunar Zephyr is not far from a win.

RACE 5: OSMANTHUS HANDICAP

#12 Applause ran well at his first start for Jimmy Ting, especially for a horse that has always improved with racing. He should be spot on now and he looks hard to beat from the good draw. #8 Blitzing will be a nice horse in time but he is still doing too many things wrong in his races to progress at this stage. That said, he’s a little better at every start and, despite the awkward draw, he’s capable of mixing it here. #7 Bingo still looks a little weak but his first-up run was OK from a bad draw. He should be better suited here. #10 Open House is at a rating where he is capable of anything fresh.

RACE 6: THE CITI SPRINT CHALLENGE CUP

#4 Good Omen ran home powerfully at his only start at Happy Valley in February. The 1200m will prove too short for him, but fresh, he couldeasily get into the finish with the right run. He’s worth a play. #6 Perfect Glory has his first run in Hong Kong, having won three from three in New South Wales when named Spellology. He has trialled well enough and he has looked to progress well since that effort. He should have every chance from the inside draw on the B circuit. #5 Jade Theatre gets Zac Purton aboard again and he looks a player. #2 Fairy Twins ran well fresh and he is a chance if he can progress off that.

RACE 7: VERBENA HANDICAP

#3 Gunnison performed well as a three-year-old off a high rating last term. It will be interesting to see if he has put much weight on over the summer – he probably will need to if he is to push towards ahigher mark – but nevertheless, he’s a galloper who looks capable of progressing as a four-year-old. #8 Cheerfuljet ran well first-up,
beaten only a length. There looks more speed in this spot and that risks flaring up his known internal issues, but if he’s able to get into a rhythm, there’s no reason he can’t kick on. #9 Mr Lumieres debuts at Happy Valley. He has looked a solid straight-track horse, but he did win twice around a bend in Australia so that should be no
concern. If anything, it is the rise in class that will prove his biggest test. #2 Baltic Whisper is another Happy Valley debutant who can figure.

RACE 8: WISTARIA HANDICAP

#4 Sleep Education has been finding form over the past few months and now looks to have struck a suitable race. It won’t take much for the half-brother to G3 winner Horse Of Fortune to deliver in this spot. #9Right Honourable sprinted sharply to win down in grade last time out. He’s always found Class 3 a little difficult, but on the evidence of
his last win, he could snare a win in this grade. #1 Don’t Miss is a likeable, albeit one-dimensional, galloper who put together four wins last season by rolling on the speed. His Waterloo is fast approaching
but he is a chance if he gets an uncontested lead. #7 Good Beauty looks to be heading the right way.

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