Friday October 18 – Meeting Preview, selections, comments and odds, courtesy Larry Foley, kranjiracing.com
While it’s often fraught with danger to label a Class 5 horse a ‘good thing’, we may make an exception with NOVA FACTOR who looks very hard to beat in race 1.
So it will pay to get to the track early on Friday night as the US-bred 3YO looks to have snuck into the bottom grade and he really should just win.
True, the Jason Ong-trained gelding showed absolutely nothing at his first three runs, but he had always trialed like a handy type and the penny certainly dropped at start four when placing behind Lim’s Ray.
He backed that up with an excellent effort when just missing to the odds-on pop, Romantic, and given the gap to third on that occasion and the ‘drop’ to Class 5, he should just make every post a winner and get punters off to a flyer.
If you want to shy away from a short-priced Class 5 favourite, there are some good horses to follow later in the card with ALTAIR gunning for a hat-track on wins in race 7 and LIM’S ZOOM well-placed in Class 4 Company over 1100m and he can win the lucky last.
Value seekers also have plenty of options with ELITE SILVERGHOST a likely improver on the Poly in race 3, as will EVIL ROADSTER back on the Poly in race 6.
Best Bets: (NOVA FACTOR race 1, win), (ELITE SILVERGHOST race 3, value), and (EVIL ROADSTER race 6, value).
Bankers for Jackpots: Race 5 (1, 2, 7, 8 and 10), race 6 (Field), race 7 (6 and 11), race 8 (2 and 9).
Race cards and Larry Foley’s synopsis follows and for updates on all runners go to www.kranjiracing.com
Please note the odds listed are “reference odds” only.
Selections; 4 NOVA FACTOR – 7 ELITE SAINT – 3 LEGEND ROCKS – 2 JUMPIN JACK
An extremely tricky Class 5 to open the meeting and while you can make a case for most on best form, it may be maiden in NOVA FACTOR that is hardest to beat. The US-bred 3YO had always trialled well enough to think he had a future before three poor runs put the champagne well and truly on ice. But he brought his ‘A game’ to the races when placing two back before running the odds on pop to the wire last start and given the gap to third was some seven lengths, he should win in Class 5. In fact he may be a good thing and hopefully the depth of the field has him at a back-able price. If he was to be beaten it may be another US-bred gelding in ELITE SAINT who drops back from the mile and will appreciate a senior hoop, while LEGEND ROCKS also drops back in trip but gets blinkers and could show up. Include DON’T WORRY and JUMPIN JACK as winning hopes with numbers 5, 8, 9, 10 and 11 in exotics.
Betting Strategy – strong win NOVA FACTOR.
1 DON’T WORRY *** Drawn badly (again) but effort last start when doing it tough in this company was good enough to follow. 8.00
2 JUMPIN JACK *** Another that showed last start that he can win in back Class 5 but also has to overcome wide alley. 8.00
3 LEGEND ROCKS *** Back in trip but significant drop to winning Class and gets blinkers back. Can win. 6.00
4 NOVA FACTOR *** Maiden who sneaks into Class 5 after two good runs including a close up placing last start. Hard to hold out. 2.50
5 OUR SHOWCASE ** Form reads badly since maiden win but drops to Class 5 and should be competitive with 3kg claim sans blinkers. 33
6 COME AND TAKE ALL * Didn’t need the wide gate. 100
7 ELITE SAINT *** Pay to forgive last start over the mile where he took hold of the junior hoop and take on good placing two back this trip with senior rider. 6.00
8 PAPERBACK TROOPER ** Did it tough last start and work late suggests he is worth serious thought with gate 2 a factor. 8.00
9 TURF BEAUTY ** This race has depth but gets gate 1 and some hope on best recent form. 20
10 DECRETO ** Never involved from wide gate last start when dropping to Class 5. Could show up at odds with a positive ride. 33
11 HOUSEHOLD DYNASTY ** Maiden who looks no hope on form but should enjoy the 1200m and Poly with Class 5 in his favour. 33
12 TIGER BOSS * Drawn wide and needs to improve. 33
13 LUCKY RED * No. 100
14 MY MONEY * Almost pinched one two back but this field is strong. 50
Selections; 15 SUPERMAX – 10 KIMITONARA – 11 SATURDAY – 1 SMOKE AND MIRRORS
With none of the newcomers jumping off the page on trial form, it does look like we can narrow the winning hopes down to five or so horses that have placed race form to their names. And one of those horses in the emergency in SUPERMAX who has changed stables after the jockey unfortunately lost his irons as the odds on pop at start two. Obviously the money was on the back of his very good debut run and he could be hard to beat if he gets a start with CC Wong to ride. Of those guaranteed a start, KIMITONARA led and was just beaten on debut and probably starts favourite on the back of that effort, while SATURDAY wasn’t far behind KIMITONARA in the same race and should figure again with gate 3 a bonus. Ignore SMOKE AND MIRRORS last start failure as his best form sans blinkers is up to this and WATER ROCKET improved length with blinkers added last start and he can also be followed. Market only guide on the newcomers with perhaps SHOW ROYALE the pick of that bunch.
Betting Strategy – SUPERMAX win.
1 SMOKE AND MIRRORS *** Did receive a check when disappointing last start when blinkers added. Can win on previous form sans headgear. 6.00
2 WATER ROCKET *** Improved when blinkers went on last start on the Poly and can follow on the turf. 5.00
3 DIAMOND MINE * Improved effort when running on after a poor start last time out but like to see more before considering. 33
4 AWESOME CONQUEROR * NZ-bred 3YO who was solid at the trials but has found a strong race. 33
5 CIRCUIT STAR * NZ-bred 3YO who needs to show more than he has at two local trials. 33
6 EL MACHO * NZ-bred 3YO who has shown glimpses at the trials and gets Rodd but wide gate doesn’t help. 33
7 FAST AND FEARLESS * Solid efforts at two starts but would need to improve to play a part in this finish. 33
8 FROM THE NAVY * Australian-bred 3YO who placed at his first Official Trial but a long way off the winner. Market only guide. 33
9 GOLDEN SHOW * Australian-bred colt who is hard to have on exposed trial form. 33
10 KIMITONARA *** Led and looked the winner till very late on debut and will again give a sight. 3.00
11 SATURDAY *** Ran on well to finish not far behind Atlas and Kimitonara on debut and can win with more forward showing early from gate 3. 4.00
12 SHOW ROYALE ** NZ-bred 3YO who looks the pick of the newcomers from the trials but widest gate makes winning tough on debut. 12
13 SILVER SWORD ** Debut only fair but improves for the run and pay to keep safe as had looked useful at the trials prior. 33
14 YOU ARE SPECIAL * Needs to improve on debut run. 50
15 SUPERMAX *** Rider lost the irons last start as the odds-on elect so obviously forget and take on excellent debut effort. 3.00
Selections; 3 AUTUMN ASSAULT – 4 BLUESTONE – 1 ELITE SILVERGHOST – 9 PERFORMANTE
Two very progressive horses turn what could have been a moderate Class 4 Poly sprint into a must watch given BLUESTONE is undefeated at two career starts and AUTUMN ASSAULT is first up after showing plenty early his career, which included a crack at Group races as a two and three-year-old. And while unplaced in both those races, the now 4YO placed at his last two starts in Class 3 and KSC Company and he can win this on the back of some very good trials. But BLUESTONE should starts favourite – and justifiably so after backing up his debut victory with a very comfortable win in Novice Company. Class 4 suits and while he has an extra 5kg to carry on his most recent win, he looks a nice type who will go through the grades. While it very well may be a race in two, ELITE SILVERGHOST bombed at his Singapore debut but can improve on what should be his preferred surface with numbers 2, 6, 7 and 9 worth thought in exotics.
Betting Strategy – AUTUMN ASSAULT win, saver on ELITE SILVERGHOST.
1 ELITE SILVERGHOST *** Flopped at Singapore debut but given Argentinean breeding and trial form, he should improve lengths on the Poly. Keep safe. 12
2 MIGHTY CONQUEROR ** Not a mile away when dropping back to Class 4 last start and will be running on again. 12
3 AUTUMN ASSAULT *** Resuming. Promising sprinter who looks extremely well placed in Class 4 to win on the back of some very good trials. 3.00
4 BLUESTONE *** Backed up 2YO maiden win on debut with another comfortably victory in Novice Company. Up 5kg on that effort but will have admirers to win again. 2.30
5 LIM’S SHOT * Will get home OK but needs to improve on recent efforts to consider. 33
6 BEER GARDEN ** Turned some good form into his maiden win on the turf last start but handles the Poly and should figure. 12
7 RED CLAW ** Found some form and could surprise at each-way odds if handy enough in running. 12
8 ALLEGRO * Resuming sans blinkers and should need longer to show his best. 33
9 PERFORMANTE ** Not a mile away in Class 3 last start and pay to keep safe at odds in more suitable company. 20
10 GOLD COAST * Broke though in Class 5 last start and will find this a much tougher ask. 33
11 RAPID FIRE * Has battled since maiden win but gate 2 helps. 33
12 WELL DESERVED * Improved effort when running on last start but love to see in easier company. 33
Selections; 2 QIJI DIAMOND – 6 DELAWARE – 10 MIGHTY VAIN – 3 WAR FRONTIER
While we may have a look at a few others at odds on the day, QIJI DIAMOND looks extremely hard to beat. The 3YO had an inauspicious debut before placing at start two despite the saddle slipping and was unlucky not to open his account at start three when narrowly being beaten this trip and track. Vlad Duric retains the ride and he should win with a tongue-tie added for good measure. On exposed form, DELAWARE (with gate 2 in his favour) and LIBRAN SON with blinkers added will keep him honest but it may be two improvers in WAR FRONTIER first up after some good work late in the Golden Horseshoe and MIGHTY VAIN – who also worked home well late on debut – that could surprise. Of the debutantes, TWILL GUY should go well on the back of some good trials with SABAH STAR also worth thought.
Betting Strategy – QIJI DIAMOND win, saver on MIGHTY VAIN at odds.
1 MY SWEETHEART * Japanese-bred filly who hasn’t shown up at the trials and gate doesn’t help. 50
2 QIJI DIAMOND *** Just missed last start and hard to hold out in this field with tongue-tie added for good measure. 2.10
3 WAR FRONTIER *** Resuming after solid effort late in the Golden Horseshoe. Worth thought first-up. 20
4 RISE OF EMPIRE * Australian-bred 3YO who looked OK at his Official Trial but like to see support before considering. 33
5 CAPONE * NZ-bred gelding who needs to improve on exposed trial form. 50
6 DELAWARE *** Did it tough on debut from wide alley so effort to place was good and gets his chance from gate 1. 5.00
7 EUNOS AVE THREE * Showed little from wide gate on debut but had trailed well prior, appreciates the run and gets winkers. 50
8 FORT MUSTANG * Race form terrible but gets blinkers added on the back of a solid trial so should improve. 50
9 LIBRAN SON ** Solid without being a threat at two starts but gets blinkers and should figure. 12
10 MIGHTY VAIN *** Never involved from wide alley on debut but work late was good enough to think he has plenty to offer here from the better gate. 20
11 SABAH STAR ** NZ-bred 3YO who had a good hit out at Official Trial and work keeping safe with one eye on the market. 12
12 TOP OF THE LINE ** Ran on solidly late on debut and should improve for the run. 20
13 TWILL GUY *** Argentinean 3YO who has shown enough at two trials to seriously consider on debut with gate 4 a factor. 6.00
14 WASHINGTON * Did it tough from wide gate when disappointing on debut and drawn badly again. 50
Selections; 10 LIM’S MOMENT – 1 PINDUS – 8 CLERGYMAN – 7 CIZEN LUCKY
While there look to be two or three newcomers with some ability and the like of PINDUS are well overdue to win, LIM’S MOMENT is hardest to beat. The Australian-bred gelding made his much-anticipated debut as 5YO on the back of some eye-catching trials and while beaten as the odds-on elect, he wasn’t beaten by much and can make quick amends. PINDUS also just missed at his last start and while he wins this without surprising, that was his eighth placing from some 12 career starts and he may well be a professional place-getter who is obviously frustrating for punters. Of the other raced brigade, QIJI FLYER has drawn well and goes good enough on his day to consider, while two newcomers in CIZEN LUCKY and CLERGYMAN both have trialled good enough to consider on debut with market best guide.
Betting Strategy – LIM’S MOMENT win.
1 PINDUS *** Two placings in Singapore takes his tally to eight from 12 and while his lack on winning form is a concern, he must go close. 3.00
2 QIJI FLYER *** Can mix his form but gate 3 helps and recent trial was good enough to consider. 8.00
3 HUNTSMAN ** Resuming after a poor effort over 1400m but eye-catching run over this trip on debut has him under notice. 12
4 LIM’S TORPEDO ** Wide gate some concern but gets blinkers and has run on strongly over this trip first up previously. Keep safe. 20
5 ANPANMAN ** Resuming after excuses on debut and worth thought in exotics on solid trial form. 33
6 CALL ME INVINCIBLE * Gets a tongue-tie after poor debut but hard to consider. 100
7 CIZEN LUCKY *** NZ-bred 4YO who hit the line well at his Official Trial and can consider on debut. 12
8 CLERGYMAN *** Australian-bred 4YO who has looked very comfortable at the trials and worth market watch on debut. 10
9 FLYING TOURBILLON ** Australian-bred 4YO who looked solid at the trials and gate 2 helps. 12
10 LIM’S MOMENT *** Just beaten as the odds-on pop on debut and can overcome wide gate and make quick amends. 3.00
11 NINETYSIX WARRIOR ** NZ-bred 4YO who has had numerous solid trials. Exotics. 33
12 PERFECT * Resuming after poor debut and didn’t need the widest alley. 100
13 STORM WARNING * Struggled on debut. 100
14 WINNING LEGEND * Should improve with racing and drawn the ace but needs to show more before considering. 100
15 LUCKY ENOUGH * Resuming after bleeding attack and trial was OK so watch market. 33
16 FIGHT TO VICTORY * Mixes his form but back in trip and gets blinkers and tongue-tie. 33
Selections; 1 EVIL ROADSTER – 2 HIGH LIMIT – 6 MA BAO BAO – 5 SOLITAIRE
A terrible race and as such it will pay to watch the tote on the day and go as wide as possible in any exotic betting, including the jackpot or quaddie. One that improves may be EVIL ROADSTER who showed two starts back that the Poly and Class 5 is his caper and he won’t meet a weaker field than this, while HIGH LIMIT will also enjoy being back on the Poly and his recent solid form has him as the benchmark. MA BAO BAO improved to place last start and can figure again with Duric on board and FEROCIOUS has placed at his last two so also has to be considered. SOLITAIRE and the second emergency, BRING ME JOY, two others that can win.
Betting Strategy – EVIL ROADSTER each-way.
1 EVIL ROADSTER *** Looks hopelessly out of form and nothing last start but will improve back on the Poly and can consider from gate 1. 12
2 HIGH LIMIT *** Drawn wide but in solid form and can win back on the Poly. 4.00
3 HOST THE NATION ** Veteran who hasn’t win for a long time but always looks some hope in weak races like this. 8.00
4 ROAN RANGER ** Will work home OK and a must for exotics but better over longer. 12
5 SOLITAIRE *** Returned a roarer last start after winning a similar affair to this two back. Blinkers off and some hope if right. 6.00
6 MA BAO BAO *** Improved lengths to be in the winning mix last start and gets Duric so keep safe. 6.00
7 LUCK MAK MAK ** Excuses not to place last start and can figure in this finish. 12
8 PLUCKY LAD ** In solid form and ran on well enough last start to consider. 7.00
9 SPUR ME ON * Needs longer before considering. 50
10 FEROCIOUS ** Placed at his last two without being a threat and expect much the same with blinkers off. 8.00
11 STANDOUT * Struggling. 50
12 DARK KNIGHT * Impossible on exposed form. 50
13 RICH FORTUNE * Needs to improve on recent form. 50
14 BRING ME JOY *** In honest form and would play a part in this finish if he gets a start. 6.00
Selections; 6 ALTAIR – 11 RIVER RADIANCE – 7 SACRED DON – 1 DINGHU MOUNTAIN
Leading trainer Michael Walker holds the whip hand here with two up-and-coming runners in ALTAIR and SACRED DON. ALTAIR has fitted in well in Singapore winning both outings and while this is harder, he is well drawn, Benny Woodworth stays on and he should be hardest to beat. SACRED DON rarely runs poorly and while up in class, he drops 4.5kg and should be near the speed throughout. The danger may be RIVER RADIANCE who is another promising type having won two and been runner-up at his other two outings; he has been freshened by a recent trial and from the good gate will be hard to run down. Of the more seasoned performers, the likes of DINGHU MOUNTAIN, SUPER FORTUNE, DUTROW, MISS DUSTY, SIR ISAAC, UNCONQUERED and SUPER POWER could all show up on best form with the tote a very good guide.
Betting Strategy – ALTAIR win.
1 DINGHU MOUNTAIN ** Returned with respiratory distress last start. Has won this class, surface and distance. Good gate and 4kg claim suggest improvement. 12
2 SUPER FORTUNE ** Not far away two starts back in Class 2. Can improve in this company but hasn’t won for a long time. 25
3 DUTROW ** Struggled last start on turf but run down late in similar race to this two starts back with same rider so keep safe. 12
4 MISS DUSTY ** Returned with cardiac arrhythmia last start. Won Class 3 over 1100m four starts back. Can improve with senior rider. 8.00
5 SIR ISAAC ** Only battled last start but was runner-up when resuming in this grade two starts back. Distance suits and can improve with best work expected late. 12
6 ALTAIR *** Has won both Singapore outings since arriving from NSW. Promising 4YO who drops 2.5kg in higher grade and should be prominent. 3.00
7 SACRED DON ** Consistent and up in class after solid Class 4 win last start. Drops 4.5kg and should be near the speed throughout. 6.00
8 SUPERNOVA * 11YO which won Class 4 over 1600m two starts back. Might find these too sharp. 100
9 ELISE * Unsighted last start following Class 4 win on turf. Has speed but this company tests. 33
10 UNCONQUERED ** Led before being run down by smart one last start. Recent trial sound. Gate no help but can give a sight. 12
11 RIVER RADIANCE *** Promising 4YO which has won two easily and been runner-up at only other two outings. Drops 3kg from last start Class 4 win and should be prominent from the good gate. 6.00
12 SUPER POWER ** Led and was run down by a good horse in similar race last start. Gate tests but can figure with senior hoop. 20
13 ROBIN HOOD * Placed two starts back over this trip but returned not striding out freely last start. Has speed but hard to follow. 50
14 SUN DREAM * Distanced when resuming. Hasn’t won for a long time. 50
Selections; 2 LIM’S ZOOM – 9 TOM CAT – 6 MADE IN CHINA – 8 NORTHERN SUN
A moderate Class 4 to finish the meeting but two horses in LIM’S ZOOM and TOM CAT look work following. LIM’S ZOOM has performed well at both outings since a long spell -winning over this trip when resuming and fighting on well for second subsequently despite being caught wide – and he meets similar company here and with Benny Woodworth staying aboard should be hard to beat. TOM CAT can also make his presence felt in Class 4 after leading throughout to win easily in maiden company on debut; the 3YO drops 3.5kg and with Joseph Azzopardi staying on can take the next step. Of the others, MADE IN CHINA improved with blinkers last start to chase home the winner, while NORTHERN SUN is also capable in this company with Duric to ride. One other to watch is the newcomer, MIG PIERRO, who won once from six starts before arrival and has trialled solidly. For the exotics include SUPERSONICSURPRISE and MACH.
Betting Strategy – LIM’S ZOOM win.
1 COUNTRY BOSS * Bolted in three starts back but has struggled since and returned lame last start. Has speed and has been freshened, but gate no help. 16
2 LIM’S ZOOM *** Has performed well at both outings since long spell. Meets similar company and should be handy throughout. 3.00
3 SUPER SIX * Won five starts back in this grade but has struggled since and changed stables. Gets Michael Rodd but poorly drawn and needs to improve. 25
4 MIG PIERRO ** Won Echuca Maiden over 1200m from six starts before arrival. Trial was solid and should be handy from good gate. 10
5 PETITE VOIX * Well beaten at two starts since changing stables. Needs to improve. 33
6 MADE IN CHINA *** Showed improvement with blinkers to chase home winner last start. Well drawn and should be handy. 8.00
7 SHOOT UP HIGH * Placed five starts back but has struggled since resuming and heart issues last start. Tongue-tie back on but improvement needed. 33
8 NORTHERN SUN *** Won four starts back over 1100m and looked to have some in hand last start. Keep safe with best work expected late. 8.00
9 TOM CAT *** Promising 3YO which bolted in at debut. Up in class but drops 3.5kg and should be prominent. 4.00
10 SUPERSONICSURPRISE ** Not far away last start and despite wide gate should be prominent. 12
11 KADIMA * Led throughout to win Class 5 over 1000m last start. Will find this harder but could run a cheeky race from gate 3. 25
12 MACH ** Ran on to place in moderate Class 4 last start over 1000m. Not the most reliable but has no weight and can run on. 12
13 FLAUNT * Weakened over 1200m last start. Has speed but only win at 1000m. 33
14 SIAM SAPPHIRE * Recent form poor and gate no help. 50