Flemington Saturday preview

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Flemington Saturday preview

JORDAN CHILDS RIDES RUPTURE IN RACE 7

Tips and race-by-race analysis for Saturday’s meeting at Flemington in Australia.

TAB BETS for this meeting = ALL RACES: Commingled Win, Place, Exacta, Rolling Double (Races 1-2; 2-3 etc) AND Commingled Jackpot (RACES 6-9).

All bets R1 unit,  minimum bet R6 (minimum EACHWAY Bet = R6 Win, R6 Place = R12),  Commingled JACKPOT no fractional betting, no tickets going forward/will pays,  ROLLING DOUBLE amount bet must be multiple of R2 so bet R6, R12, R14 not R7 or R9.

TABCORP Australia PLACE rules: Less than 5 carded no Place betting,  5-7 carded payouts FIRST, SECOND,  8 or more carded payouts FIRST, SECOND, THIRD.

If more than 30 runners carded, TAB operates SA pools on race and TAB SA rules apply. In such races all runners numbered 30 and higher are bracketed as Number 30, which can only qualify once for dividend purposes.

TELEVISION: Races 3-9 TT1 (in TABs/Tellytrack ch 239 DStv).

Phumelela TAB: call bets only = call venue key 71 to bet. Gold Circle: mark SPX oval.

 

Flemington (Victoria)
Conditions: Fine
Going: Soft5 8 Top Bets
 
Race 1
Fillies & Mares BM84 Hcp 1200m
Class: BM84, Fillies & Mares, Handicap
3:45AM
 
Selections
2. Gododdin (5)
5. Atlantica (11)
10. Loolwah (8)
6. O’ So Hazy (1)
 
Analysis
GODODDIN has won at Caulfield and placed once this prep, has solid claims. ATLANTICA has gone well on a softer track and rates highly with Regan Bayliss aboard, could upset. LOOLWAH having first start in Australia and has not trialled, in with a chance. O’ SO HAZY resumes after a 16 week spell and proven on softer tracks, dangerous.
 
Race 2
Super Vobis 2-Y-O Plte 1000m
Class: 2-Y-O, SW + P
4:20AM
 
Selections
1. Nantucket (4)
7. Chrome Angel (11)
6. Yulong Command (8)
10. Kotys (1)
 
Analysis
Tricky affair with so many on debut. NANTUCKET only just missed at only start, finishing a neck back from the winner at Sandown on a heavy track and drops in weight, marginal top pick. CHROME ANGEL last start winner at Warrnambool and in strong form with two wins from three attempts this campaign, can figure. YULONG COMMAND on debut and has trialled at Pakenham Park, in with a chance. KOTYS first start and racing without trial, each-way claims.
 
Race 3
3-Y-O Fillies BM78 Hcp 1600m
Class: 3-Y-O, BM78, Fillies, Handicap
4:55AM
Selections
8. Librate (12)
6. November Dreaming (7)
14. Thee One (6)
5. Charleise (9)
 
Analysis
LIBRATE last start winner at Ballarat and won two of four as a favourite, commands respect. NOVEMBER DREAMING has won at Pakenham Park and placed once this prep, the real danger in the race. THEE ONE strong finishing effort to win last start to break maiden at Pakenham Park on a soft track and has been flying of late, dangerous. CHARLEISE a winner at first outing this prep and gets the blinkers on for the first time, cannot be ruled out.
 
Race 4
BM78 Hcp 1600m
Class: BM78, Handicap 
5:30AM
 
Top Bets from the Experts
Cameron Happ
BET: Win
 9. Sikorsky (10)  $4.20This is going to be a great betting race with some promising types all in peak form but at anything better than $4 I’m keen to play this lightly raced Lindsay Park-trained gelding. He was tested out to 2500m in the Victoria Derby before an injury enforced spell, but I’m not convinced he’s a stayer. He went to the line untested first-up over 1300m when held up the entire straight before storming home from the back at Caulfield where the winner got a dream run up the rails. No concern with the four weeks between runs as they scratched to avoid a heavy track last week, the mile looks perfect and I’m sure they’ll look to be a bit more positive looking to slot in midfield or better. If he has any luck early, he’ll take beating with a break over the tow huge dangers Duke Of Plumpton and Orleans Rock.
 
Selections
9. Sikorsky (10)
13. Orleans Rock (3)
7. Duke Of Plumpton (11)
5. Salorsci (5)
 
Analysis
Hard to split the top two selections. SIKORSKY came on strong when just beaten last start at Caulfield and should run fitter for past attempts, a close top selection. ORLEANS ROCK made ground late to win last start at Sandown on a heavy track and proven perfromer on a soft track, must be considered. DUKE OF PLUMPTON a winner at first outing this prep and proven on softer tracks, still in this. SALORSCI coming off a win at Warrnambool and won four of six as a favourite, place best.
 
Race 
Hcp 000m
Class: Handicap
6:10AM
 
Top Bets from the Experts
Laurie Sainsbury
BET: Each Way
 3. Milwaukee (7)  $15This horse goes his best up the Flemington straight where his record reads well (9:4-2-1). He is better suited over slightly further but last start over this trip he was beaten 2 ½ lengths by Prezado and The Inevitable and they ran within 1.39 of a second from the track record. He ran his 600m split from the 800m to the 200m in 31.59, he was gassed but held on ok the last bit. Lewis German takes the claim and he rode with good judgement last week, if he holds him up Milwaukee will go close.
 
Selections
2. Eduardo (3)
8. Causeway Girl (4)
9. King Of Hastings (8)
4. Prezado (6)
 
Analysis
EDUARDO will appreciate the cut in the ground and drops 1kg from last run, hard to go past. CAUSEWAY GIRL back from let-up and winner of two when first-up including ran third at Moonee Valley last go, looks threatening. KING OF HASTINGS resumes after a spell of 18 weeks and resumes well running second at Caulfield when last first-up, could upset. PREZADO last start winner at Flemington and rates highly with Jamie Kah retaining the ride, sneaky chance.
 
Race 6
The Andrew Ramsden 2800m
Class: GROUP LR, 3,4&5-Y-O, Weight for Age
6:50AM
Top Bets from the Experts
Richard Callander
BET: Win
 
2. King Of Leogrance (5)  $2.6He is the ‘King’ of the staying horses at present and I think Danny O’Brien will book a spot in this year’s Melbourne Cup with this promising stayer King Of Leogrance. Nine weeks ago he toyed with the Adelaide Cup field winning comfortably. O’Brien has mastered how to have stayers ready to go as he proved with Russian Camelot last weekend so although it’s been two months since King Of Leogrance won in Adelaide he will be spot on. For a stayer he has a very sharp turn of speed and he looks the best bet around the country on Saturday.
 
Selections
 7. Too Close the Sun (2)
12. Oceanex (1)
2. King Of Leogrance (5)
10. Sopressa (7)
 
Analysis
Can’t imagine one of the top two not winning. TOO CLOSE THE SUN last start win at Warrnambool took streak to three in a row and rates well on a softer track, one of the main hopes. OCEANEX last start winner at Morphettville and draws to do no work, hard to hold out. KING OF LEOGRANCE back from nine week let-up. Winner of last two at Morphettville and Flemington, quinella. SOPRESSA rates well in these conditons and should race on the speed, place claims.
 
Race 7
Hcp 2000m
Class: 3-Y-O & Up, Handicap
7:30AM
 
Top Bets from the Experts
Cameron Happ
BET: Win
4. Rupture (3) $2.15Of the shorter priced favourites on the card this is the one I want to anchor in any exotics and even the quaddie. He took a big step last time in winning the Hamilton Cup and the Werribee Cup along with a solid effort in the Group III Bendigo Cup but I’m sure he’s gone to another level this prep. Strong late under 61kg winning over a mile, he then came to a similar grade of race and was totally dominant out in front and was doing his best work through the line. He does meet a few worse off at the weights but upside for the prep offsets that and he’s either going to control the front again or worse case box seat. Perfectly suited up to 2000m, he should just win.
 
Selections
4. Rupture (3)
11. Schabau (5)
3. Kaonic (16)
 
Analysis
RUPTURE winner of three in a row after last start win at Flemington and Jordan Childs a bonus, genuine contender. SCHABAU resumes from a spell of 63 weeks and has won all three races so far, cannot be ruled out. KAONIC ran sixth last start at Flemington and faces a rise in distance, place chance.
Race 8 
Hcp 1400m
Class: Handicap
8:10AM
Top Bets from the Experts
Cameron Happ
BET: Each Way
16. Heptagon (5) $12In what looks a bit of a raffle I think we’ll get a good run out of this tough old gelding that almost never runs a bad race. He’s always been a horse that improves off his fresh run, but he returned in great shape in the Wangoom at Warrnambool. Held up on the home turn just as they sprinted for home, he’s hit the line hard to get within a length and a half of the airborne Order Of Command. The improving track is ideal as is the step to 1400m and he’s got a super second-up record of 4:2-1-0. Drawn to be no worse than midfield and Michael Dee knows him well, he’ll run this out strong at the $16.
Selections
5. A Shin Rook (18)
11. Sirius Suspect (4)
1. Achernar Star (8)
2. Iconoclasm (3)
 
Analysis
Look for value in a very open race. A SHIN ROOK winner despite being unwanted in the betting last start at Morphettville when fresh, hard to go past. SIRIUS SUSPECT winner at Flemington and placed twice this campaign, could upset. ACHERNAR STAR unwanted by the market but right up there last start at Sandown and likely to race on the speed, each-way claims. ICONOCLASM has outstanding form at this track and has two placings from three runs this prep, sneaky chance.
 
Race 9
Super Vobis 3-Y-O Hcp 1400m
Class: 3-Y-O, Handicap
8:45AM
Top Bets from the Experts
Heath Pope
BET: Win
2. Broadwayandfourth (14) $5.5Would be amiss of me not to mention this Mitchell Freedman-trained filly that was absolutely enormous last start in Adelaide. On a day where most leaders/on-pacers were finding a way to hold on and score, this filly stood out as one of the few to make good late ground, rattling off the days best final sectionals. After being snagged well back from her wide draw settling a clear last, to finish under a length away behind two very in-form gallopers in Xilong and Garner really was an outstanding effort. Put the writing on the wall that she was a filly of promise with an impressive Listed win when last in work (just her first campaign), again when hitting the line hard late. Actually thought she wouldn’t have been out of place had connections rolled the dice and gave her a shot at the Group I Goodwood giving an even clearer picture to what we thought of the run. Drops back sharply to a 3YO handicap affair whilst rise to 1400m suggest presents ideally with Ben Melham jumping back aboard. You would like to think th
 
Laurie Sainsbury
BET: Each Way
12. Eluding (4)$15Debuted at Ballarat last start on the heavy (10) track when he defeated Rising Archie. That horse had race experience and fitness on his side, he put the pressure on at the 600m but Eluding was too strong. He’s a nice type by Toronado and provided that race hasn’t flattened him he looks to have a future as Rising Archie came out and won at Ararat next start before placing at Lakeside next run. He won a trial at Tatura in October, I liked what I saw and think he may have a promising future.
 
Cameron Happ
BET: Each Way
 14. Rebel Racer (3)

$19I’ve always liked this lightly raced gelding and the fact Craig Williams has ridden him in every career start suggests he too has a good opinion of the son of Rebel Raider. They tested him at Group II level at his last run prior to a spell in his first prep and he easily did enough first-up on the heavy (9) when given a strong hit out up on pace to only be beaten two lengths over the short 1300m. He will be better as he gets out over longer, but the race looks to have a good strong speed prior to scratching’s, and he’ll fall straight into a soft run midfield or better. With clear air from the turn, he’ll be steaming through the line and looks overs at the early $21. 

 
Selections
3. Beehunter (2)
11. Defiant Dancer (6)
2. Broadwayandfourth (14)
9. Debt’n’deficit (12)
 
Analysis
BEEHUNTER chased well to fall just short last start at Flemington and won once this prep at Sandown four runs back, hard to go past. DEFIANT DANCER has three placings from four runs this prep and placed last start at Sandown, not without each-way claims. BROADWAYANDFOURTH chased well to fall just short last start in the TAB Euclase Stakes and rates highly with Ben Melham aboard, each-way claims. DEBT’N’DEFICIT likes the cut in the ground and has two placings from four runs this prep, sneaky chance.
 
Racenet.com.au
 
 
 
 

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