WILLIAM PIKE RIDES FESTIVAL MISS IN R7
Tips and race-by-race analysis of Saturday’s meeting at Ascot in Australia.
TAB BETS for this meeting = ALL RACES: Commingled Win, Place, Exacta, Rolling Double (Races 1-2; 2-3 etc) AND Commingled Jackpot (RACES 6-9).
All bets R1 unit, minimum bet R6 (minimum EACHWAY Bet = R6 Win, R6 Place = R12), Commingled JACKPOT no fractional betting, no tickets going forward/will pays, ROLLING DOUBLE amount bet must be multiple of R2 so bet R6, R12, R14 not R7 or R9.
TABCORP Australia PLACE rules: Less than 5 carded no Place betting, 5-7 carded payouts FIRST, SECOND, 8 or more carded payouts FIRST, SECOND, THIRD.
If more than 30 runners carded, TAB operates SA pools on race and TAB SA rules apply. In such races all runners numbered 30 and higher are bracketed as Number 30, which can only qualify once for dividend purposes.
TELEVISION: Races 1-9 TT1 (in TABs/Tellytrack ch 239 DStv).
Phumelela TAB betting form: mark 20 oval. Gold Circle: mark SPW oval.
2YO Plate 1100m
Class: 2-Y-O, SW + P
Top Bets from the Experts
1. Sassy Trader (3) 2.6With little to get excited about in the first-starters I think this Sean Casey-trained youngster is a huge chance of continuing on his winning way. He scored solidly over 1000m on debut after settling outside the leader and the stable indicated after the win there was scope for improvement. Casey’s two-year-olds have been excellent this season with three-time winner Charleton Eddie and Sires’ Produce runner-up Dom To Shoot leading the charge and I don’t think Sassy Trader is too far behind that pair in terms of raw ability. With main danger Kissonallforcheeks drawn wide I expect Sassy Trader to secure the run of the race either leading or stalking before proving too slippery in the straight.
6. Kissonallforcheeks (9)
Market best guide for first starters. KISSONALLFORCHEEKS last start winner to break maiden at Ascot and rates highly with Chris Parnham aboard, looks a sure thing. SASSY TRADER won at only start at Ascot and has won here before, could upset. CROWN OF FLOWERS has had success trialling and draws to do no work, place claims. TIGER MOVE unwanted by the market but right up there at only start at Ascot, strong place chance.
3YO Handicap 1000m
Class: 3-Y-O, Handicap
1. Amelia’s Contraire (4)
Trying to find the quinella here with a dominant top pick. AMELIA’S CONTRAIRE and came on strong to win last start at Ascot and has multiple wins at the track, rates a long way in front. WE’VE GOT DREAMS back from 19 week spell and generally strong first-up placing at Bunbury last attempt, capable of getting into the money with a bit of luck. LORDING short back-up of seven days. Winner at Bunbury and placed twice this campaign, include in exotics. DEW WEST short back-up of seven days and placed when fresh, consider in exotics.
Westspeed Platinum No Metro Wi 1400m
Class: 3-Y-O & Up, No Metro Wins, Handicap
Top Bets from the Experts
8. Snippy Miss (12) $4.6
At the early odds this Adam Durrant-trained filly is a superb bet but even if she firms I’d be happy to take $3 or better. She arguably brings the best form to the race having finished runner-up at her past three starts while not getting things her own way. In the first two of those efforts, she made good ground from the back half of the field on screaming leaders tracks and found the 1200m just a little too short last start when running on again to split a couple of capable rivals. From the wide gate she’ll go back as usual however there looks to be decent speed on and the Ascot surface has played fairly in recent weeks to allow good backmarkers to run on. Watch for jockey Clint Johnston-Porter peeling Snippy Miss wide on the turn to unleash a big finish.
11. Jaguar Grey (6)
Hard to see anything upsetting the top two choices. JAGUAR GREY won last start to break maiden at Ascot and rates highly with Shaun O’Donnell aboard, should go well. SNIPPY MISS has seven placings from 12 runs this prep and in the money last start running second at Ascot, a real threat. FROSTY BEVERAGE in the money last start running second at Ascot on a heavy track and all wins have come when faced with dry ground, sneaky chance. KAKADU 2 wins from eight attempts this campaign and two from four wins have been in the dry, looks threatening.
Graduation Handicap (1MW) 1000m
Class: 3-Y-O & Up, One Metro Win, Handicap
5. Miss Frost (8)
MISS FROST a winner at first outing this prep and both wins have come in the dry, the testing material. MOOD SWINGS at only start winner at Bunbury and drops in weight, not without each-way claims. WAKAN TANKA placed when unwanted in the betting last start at Ascot and has six placings from 10 runs this prep, place hope. DRIFTSTAR back after 17 week break and resumes well, place best.
Graduation Handicap (1MW) 1800m
Class: 2-Y-O & Up, One Metro Win, Handicap
6. Laufey (4)
LAUFEY finished strongly to end up midfield last start at Ascot and two of three wins have come from dry ground, well placed. PORPHYRIO has been running well this campaign winning twice and placing in all other outings, don’t treat lightly. THAT’S FUNNY AZ led all the way to win last start at Ascot on a soft track and has the speed to overcome drawing the widest barrier, place chance. MY FAIR BALENTINE placed last start at Ascot on a heavy track and all wins have come when faced with dry ground, place best.
RTG 72+ Handicap 1000m
Class: 3-Y-O & Up, RTG72+, Handicap
CONDOR HEROES looking for a hatrick after winning two in a row at Ascot and two of three wins have come from dry ground, big chance. STATE ATTORNEY won two of nine as a favourite and won once this prep at Ascot six runs back, chance to place. FRED DAG let-up and placed when fresh, place hope. RIVER BEAU can’t knock the form winning two in a row at Ascot and has won twice at the track before, place best.
RTG 66+ Handicap 1400m
Class: 2-Y-O & Up, RTG66+, Handicap
2. Mankind (3)
Hard to see anything upsetting the top two choices. MANKIND placed last start at Ascot when first up and up in journey, one of the main hopes. GATES OF BABYLON coming off a win at Ascot and has multiple wins at the track, can figure. LORENTINIO faded to finish on the winners’ heels last start at Ascot and won’t be far away in the run, sneaky chance. KELVIN gave nothing else a chance to win last start at Ascot. Has trialled and won since last race 28 days ago, strong place chance.
ROMA CUP 1200m
Class: GROUP 3, 2-Y-O & Up, Weight for Age
2. Vega Magic (3)
Hard to split the top two selections. VEGA MAGIC resumes after a spell of 37 weeks and won all three trials, one of the main hopes. ANGELIC RULER has multiple wins at Ascot and drops 1kg from last run, hard to hold out. FLIRTINI has placed in two attempts this campaign and amongst the placegetters last start running second at Ascot, chance to place. GATTING back from 21 week spell and proven first-up runner winning in two of seven attempts, place best.
RTG 78+ Handicap 1400m
Class: 2-Y-O & Up, RTG78+, Handicap
14. Festival Miss (1) $4.2A light weight, perfect spot on the map and William Pike legging back aboard are the catalysts for this Grant and Alana Williams-trained mare returning to winning ways. She has stoked up in competitive closing sectionals in most of her starts this time in work and now from the inside alley with an expected solid tempo should find a great position midfield, conserving energy before finishing off strongly. She’s scored only once at this track although her record over the distance is excellent having finished out of the placings only once in eight attempts. Pike in the final race is a popular get-out so the best time to bet may be after final scratchings and before other punters pile on late in the day.
11. Laverrod (6)
LAVERROD has been flying of late and has won three times at Ascot before, well placed. FESTIVAL MISS chased well to fall just short last start at Ascot and drawn the rails, each-way claims. PYM’S ROYALE made ground late to win last start at Ascot and has outstanding form at this track, cannot be ruled out. FORCEFUL first-up after 21 week break and placed when trialling at Belmont, needs the breaks.