Race-by race analysis of Sunday’s race meeting at Sha Tin racecourse in Hong Kong, the penultimate meeting of the season.
Race 1: Kelmimi Wins last run suggested a win was very near and from his barrier, should lead and prove hardest to run down under Joao Moreira. Shanghai Dragon another dangerous frontrunner who is in good form and will be thereabouts in the finish. A win looks near. Adonis every chance last start but still ran a good race and will be making a late bid if the race is run to suit. Consider for exotic bets. Speedy Dragon down in class here and can surprise. Will need luck from barrier No 14 but Zac Purton rides which should improve his chances. Nitro Express will win in this grade very soon and gets his chance from stall 1.
Race 2: Mighty Valor a fast beginner who can run well if he finds an easy lead, which looks likely given he comes into barrier No 5 from No 14 in this race. Purton takes over and will be hard to run down. Vigor Champ has improved since blinkers were added last start. Monkey Jewellery narrowly beaten last start and goes close here. Every chance from barrier No 4 for Moreira. Simply Fluke fresh up from a break and should run well. Racing very well after a stable change. Lucky Puzzle finished powerfully with fastest sectional time ranking last start and can improve more under Karis Teetan here.
Race 3: Smart Charade video replay showed last run was very good after racing without much luck in the straight as well as the jockey being queried over his handling. Big jockey change in Moreira taking over and goes close. Leading Fortune last start winner who retains good form and can run well again. Has been a big improver in recent starts. Good Shot has shown ability and gets his chance to win with Purton taking the ride. Circuit Hassler will win in this grade very soon but again needs luck from a wide draw. Smart Wongchoy showed good speed to lead last start and gave a good sight, a win is near.
Race 4: Fast Most Furious looked unlucky when being held up at a crucial stage last start but still returned good late figures. Reacquaints with Purton, who has a great record with the horse. Helene Leadingstar video replay showed last run was very good and looks a big improver with Moreira taking the ride. Jolly Banner last start winner who retains good form and can run well again. Preciousship should be highly suited by the drop back in distance after looking unlikely over further last start. General’s Delight never far away from the winner and could sneak a place at the weights from a low draw.
Race 5: Circuit Number One looks a solid good chance based on last start and appears ready to win. An open race, but he’s the one who stands out. Cheerful Star flew home late last start and must be respected. Moreira takes the ride and they are the likely danger. Good Days made up ground last start and is racing well; however, barrier No 14 is far from ideal. Natural Storm every chance last start but still ran a good race and is an improving type nearing a win. Reynolds ran the second fastest sectional time last start and looks well-in under the apprentice claim.
Race 6: Sky Field huge run last start and is the one to beat. Boasts above average ability and potential and should be an easy winner, provided he doesn’t get too far back like he did first-up. A big plus with Moreira taking the ride. Golden Link has been placed last two starts and deserves a win soon and is the obvious danger to the favourite. Rewarding Together is an improving type who is nearing a win and he gets his chance from barrier No 1. Hero Star another who has placed at his last two starts and deserves a win soon. The Abraxas a fast beginner who can run well if he finds an easy lead. Teetan rides.
Race 7: Armor Star had excuses last start when racing wide without cover, but that shouldn’t occur here from barrier No 1 . Super Red Dragon is an improving type who is nearing a win, Moreira rides and he could easily swamp late if the pace is on. So We Joy was an easy last start winner and must be respected to repeat the dose. Sumstreetsumwhere changed stables recently and has improved, boasts good chances here. Universal Crown will be suited by the rise in distance and can run well as an improving type with upside to come.
Race 8: Fantastic Show nice horse who is a model of consistency and looks the one to beat based on current form. The Rock nice effort last start when storming home, appears ready to win third-up up to the mile trip. Precise Express caused a surprise last start when winning at big odds and a repeat of that run sees him highly competitive here. Mr Aldan had genuine excuses last start and can improve in this race, but barrier No 12 looks tricky on paper. Pakistan Friend change of trainer recently and can improve. Has trialled well for his return but past vet issues could find him out under race-day conditions.
Race 9: Beauty Applause overlook last start effort as there were genuine excuses, top chance to bounce back for a win this time. Amazing Chocolate racing in career-best form and must be rated a good chance despite rapidly rising in class. Mongolian King racing well with good sectional time rankings recently, Purton takes the ride and could be hard to hold out. Fantasy ran the second fastest sectional time last start and appears to have more to come. Young Legend has been placed last two starts and deserves a win soon, last run was sectionally good.
Race 10: Heza Beauty was an easy last start winner and must be rated a top chance despite rising in class. Can measure up. Flying Sword well supported last start and won accordingly, can repeat the dose but this race looks harder than last start. Awe backing up quickly from a good last start effort when easily winning and can run well again. Alcari caused a surprise last start when winning at big odds, must be respected from the Yiu stable. Guy Dragon good sectionals recently.
Race 11: Good Luck Friend smart 3yo who is the one to beat on current form. It appears a match race between him and Winning Brew, who’s a highly promising galloper but rises in class here and was flattered by a very fast run race last start, which exaggerated the winning margin. Smart Leader narrowly beaten last start, drawn barrier No 1 here and has to be considered a leading chance on recent efforts. Quadruple Double a fast beginner who can run well. Metro Warrior was not disgraced last start when beaten by a very smart horse. Drawn well, maps well and can improve.